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Spring’s already dry. What does El Niño mean for your water plan?

The Bureau of Meteorology climate outlook for September to December 2026 points to below average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia. Daytime temperatures south of the tropics are forecast to be above average, while overnight temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal across the entire country.

For many farmers, dry conditions are nothing new, with El Niño conditions expected to increase the risk of hotter and drier weather, now is the time to get prepared.

What’s driving the El Niño effect across Australia?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern driven by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This year, those temperatures are forecast to be around 1 to 2 degrees above normal levels.

What does this mean for Australian agriculture?

El Niño is frequently associated with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures. Current forecasts are suggesting a 60-75% probability of drier than median conditions through Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, while below average river flows are expected across the Murray-Darling Basin.

CSIRO researchers have cautioned that seasonal forecasts cannot predict the exact impact at a local level, however the overall outlook has pointed to an increased risk of drought and greater pressure on farm water supplies.

Why is this spring different?

What’s different this year is that a lot of farmers are heading into spring with limited reserves. This has been highlighted by the national sheep flock falling an estimated 2.7% to 67.1 million head. This fall has been a direct result of three consecutive years of difficult seasonal conditions, and the cattle numbers tell a similar story, with herds across New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria contracting under prolonged dry conditions (Meat & Livestock Australia).

With farmers facing pressure this spring, many farms are at risk of having lower dam levels and drier soil profiles.

Water planning starts before the heat arrives

Getting prepared early means understanding not only how much water is available, but whether available infrastructure can cope with peak summer demand.

A simple review should include:

  • Assessing current dam, tank and storage capacity.
  • Estimating peak livestock water demand during summer.
  • Inspecting troughs, pipes and valves for leaks or damage.
  • Checking pump performance and delivery rates.
  • Identifying infrastructure that may need replacement before summer.

Water usage doesn’t creep up gradually during summer, it jumps significantly. For example, sheep can consume an increase in water of up to 80% in extreme heat, with the majority of this increase directly related to their drinking water requirements (Sheep Connect SA). Trough capacity, water flow rates and access points should be considered as part of the broader water management plan.

Water quality matters, too

Water quantity is only part of the equation. Water quality can have a significant impact on livestock performance.

One study tracking yearling heifers found a 23% increase in weight gain in animals drinking from a trough or spring compared to those drinking dam water. Providing clean, fresh water encourages intake and supports animal health during periods of heat stress. We’ve covered this in more detail in clean water troughs for livestock.

Additionally, infrastructure materials can make a difference to the overall wellbeing of your livestock. Concrete troughs tend to keep water cooler for longer, helping to maintain quality during the hotter months, while alternative materials can absorb more heat or deteriorate more quickly under prolonged sun exposure.

Choosing the right trough for the job

Once you’ve sized up what your paddocks need, the next question is which trough will do the job.

Conron precast concrete troughs are manufactured as a single-piece unit using steel and synthetic-fibre reinforced 45 MPa concrete, with 75mm walls and a 100mm base designed for long-term durability in Australian conditions. Conron’s most popular water troughs include the:

  • Tubby 2100, the largest in the range at 2,100 litres, a round trough built for big mobs where a lot of stock need to drink at once.
  • 16ft Rambo, 833 litres across 5200mm of trough, suited to larger mobs of sheep and cattle.
  • 8ft Beef Bar, 620 litres, one of the most popular sizes in the range and a solid all-rounder for cattle and horses.

Every trough in the range is built to the same standard, ensuring reliability regardless of size.

Are you sure you are prepared for the summer?

Farmers who review water capacity, inspect infrastructure and address weaknesses early will be better positioned to maintain livestock performance and avoid costly disruptions during the peak summer conditions.

If you’re unsure what trough capacity best suits your operation, the Conron Stockcrete team can help assess your requirements before spring turns into summer. Contact the team on 1300 084 698 for advice or a quote.

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